How do you spend your time in the ghetto

Imagine a world in which the only way out of the ghetto is via basketball, baseball, soccer or science.  And then compare this to another town (somewhere in the world - although probably in China or India) where success is measured based on your math and science test scores, We know that most of these students will not make the NBA All Star game nor win a Nobel prize. But how about all the others (the mere mortals) - those that don't win the grand prize.  How would you handicap the chances of the "hopeful" but unsuccessful NBA prospect versus the biologist that didn't win a Nobel prize?